Ottar Bjornstad

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  Nonlinearity and chaos in ecological dynamics: revisited
  Ottar Bjornstad
  Historically, both experimental and theoretical ecologists have sought to emulate the development of early theory in the physical sciences: the ideal that a few simple equations may accurately predict the complex movement of celestial bodies or interactions among molecules in mixing gasses. In the environmental sciences, such simple clockworks have rarely been found, and rather than predictable stable or recurring patterns, erratic patterns abound. The discovery in the late 1970s through mid-1980s of certain ecological models—such as the Ricker or discrete logistic maps—suggesting erratic fluctuations through dynamic chaos caused what cautionaries may characterize as ecology’s period of “rational exuberance� with respect to hoping that a small set of mathematical equations may explain the erratic dynamics of real-world ecological communities. Upon much discussion, the field as a whole grew skeptical of this idea during the late 90s. During the subsequent 3 decades, mathematical theories of the sensitivity and predictability of ecological and epidemiological systems have been much refined. I will discuss a handful of case studies that I believe were pivotal in changing our more recent understanding of 'Uncertainty, Sensitivity and Predictability in Ecology'.